Alternate Holliday Options

If the Mets decide not to sign Holliday, what should they do?

• Alfonso Soriano may be on the chopping block and although his contract is quite large, the Mets may not have to give up much if they are willing to pay for most of the contract. Outside of this past year, he has been very productive and has actually been a good LF.
• Bringing Mike Cameron back would be nice if it's for a low price. He's a solid hitter who can hit 15-20 HRs, get on base at a decent clip, and run the bases well. This is all not to mention he is still a good outfielder despite his age. The only problem with getting Cameron would be the need to upgrade another position significantly offensively.
• A Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez trade would be fantastic although it would wipe out the Mets farm system. Fielder has immense power and has improved on defense so he is nearly exactly average at 1B. Gonzalez is a slightly worse hitter and slightly better fielder. I would prefer Fielder over Gonzalez. The only people I'd be hesitant to give up in a trade for either would be Mejia, Flores and F-Mart. Would a Davis, Holt, Niese, Parnell deal get the job done? Possibly. We'd probably have to give up F-Mart and our farm system would be depleted.
• A Fielder trade and Mike Cameron signing would be very nice and we'd have enough available money to sign Lackey. Would he be worth it? He is an good pitcher and has done well in big games but he does come with a bit of an injury history and at 30 years old would he be worth more than a 4 year deal?

I've Been Thinking...

I've been thinking about the last post about my offseason moves and I've changed my mind on several things. Here is my updated offseason semi-realistic wish list along with contractual agreements for the year.
Right now the Mets roster looks like this:

C - Omir Santos - $400K
C - Josh Thole - $400K
1B - Daniel Murphy - $401K
2B - Luis Castillo - $6MM
SS - Jose Reyes - $9MM
3B - David Wright - $10MM
IF - Anderson Hernandez - $400K
LF - Angel Pagan - $575K+
CF - Carlos Beltran - $18.5MM
RF - Jeff Francoeur - $3.375MM+
OF - Cory Sullivan - $600K+
OF - Jeremy Reed - $925K+
1B/LF - Nick Evans - $403K or OF - Fernando Martinez - $400K

SP - Johan Santana - $21MM
SP - John Maine - $2.6MM+
SP - Mike Pelfrey - $1.3125MM
SP - Oliver Perez - $12MM
SP - Jon Niese - $400K

Other candidates: Fernando Nieve - $414K, Tim Redding - $2.25MM+

RP - Francisco Rodriguez - $11.5MM
RP - Pedro Feliciano - $1.6125MM+
RP - Sean Green - $471K+
RP - Pat Misch - $402K
RP - Bobby Parnell - $400K
RP - Brian Stokes - $410K
RP - Carlos Muniz - $402K

Other commitments: J.J. Putz - $1MM buyout

If they keep their payroll about the same as this year (approx. $140 mil.) they should have about $25-$30 million to spend. That also doesn't include the fact that the Wilpons said that $ wouldn't be an issue but who knows with them.

Here is what I would do:

• Keep Castillo, Reyes, Wright, and Beltran at their positions.
• Don't pick up Putz's option but resign him to a deal that could be worth up to about $8 million with incentives.
• Keep F-Mart, Niese, Holt, Mejia, and Flores.
• Trade some mid-level prospects for either Ricky Nolasco or Aaron Harang, both coming off of poor, unlucky, and injury riddled years. Both are good pitchers who could benefit from a change of scenery, particularly Harang who would benefit from the Mets' strong outfield defense and large dimensions.
  
• Trade some minor leaguers for Chris Ianetta if he's available. If not sign Gregg Zaun to a one year deal with Santos as the backup. Also try to bring Brian Schnider back on a minor league deal.
• Sign Mark Prior, Chad Cordero, and Jorge Julio to minor league contracts.
• Sign (preferrably) Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets, or Rich Harden to a one year incentive based deal.
  
• Put Parnell back in the bullpen.
• Keep Nieve and Figueroa in the minors as back up SPs.
• Send Reed an Sullivan to minors or non tender them.
• Use Carter, Evans, Valdez (who I would resign), and Pagan as the back ups.
  
• Sign Holliday to a 4 or 5 year deal at around $20 million/year and I'd be willing to go as high as 6 years at $115 mil.
  
• If there's enough money sign Delgado to a one year incentive based deal while turning Murphy into a super-sub. If there's not enough $ then...
• Keep Murphy at first. He was the second best defensive 1b in the NL this year according to UZR. He is developing as a hitter and had a solid second half. I'm not saying he'll end up like him BUT Tino Martinez's rookie season and Murphy's are nearly identical.
  
• Possibly bring Hank Blalock to platoon with Murphy. He has legitimate power and is a solid 1b (even if it is a small sample size) coming off of a unlucky season.
  

I'm Back

I really haven't posted in a long time because I've been writing a good deal for playerpress.com but I wanted to come back here too so I'll post on both. I miss the ignorant comment battles. Before I start talking about what I want the Mets to do in the offseason I want to say that I knew Pedro would be pitching well and it hurts to see him on the Phills. Anyway moving to the offseason:

• Resign Delgado to a one year incentive based deal.
• Turn Murphy into a super-sub. He is not the 1b of the future, Ike Davis is.
• Sign Holliday to a 4 or 5 year deal. He is good on defense as well as offense.
• DO NOT TRADE Beltran, Reyes, or Wright.
• Trade Francouer and a minor leaguer for Aaron Harang.
• Pick up Putz option.
• Put Parnell back in the bullpen
  
• Bring back Tatis back on a one year deal.
  
• Replace Sheffield with Nick Evans.
• Sign Chad Cordero, Jorge Julio, andMark Prior to minor league deals.
• Sign either Bedard or Sheets to a minor league deal if they would accept it. If not a one year incentive based deal.
• Try to trade for Chris Iannetta or Chris Snyder but if either are too expensive bring back Schnider on a minor league deal and stick with a Thole/Santos platoon in the majors.
• Bring back Xavier Nady to play RF on a one or two year deal.
  

Player Press

Hey guys I got a job of sorts writing for playerpress.com so go check that out as well as here.

Bad News for Mets

Mets have recently learned that Reyes has a tear in his hamstring and will not return until about the All-Star Break. J.J. Putz will also have surgery to remove the bone spurs in his elbow and should return in about 3 months. The good news for the Mets is that Alex Cora is back so we don't have to deal with Malo or any other no hit SS to continue to fill in 100% of the time. In other good news is that Ryan Church should back Sunday. What Manuel is planning to do is split time at SS between Cora and Valdez with Cora getting the majority of starts. As for the outfield situation Manuel plans to have Beltran start in CF, continue start Fernando Martinez (who has hit around .333 since his 0 for 9 start) in left or right, and having Sheffield and Church split time in order to keep Shef fresh. I hope and still think that Church can be a productive starting right rielder while Sheff can continue to be a productive bat (although he needs to stay healthy).

To replace Putz on the roster the Mets have called up former top prospect Fernando Nieve. Nieve has always had good stuff but had failed to put it all together. He has done a pretty good job in the minors posting FIP's of 2.98 and 3.61 at AA and AAA with K/9's of 9.33 and 8.51. Hopefully this is Nieve putting together all the talent he has and making the most out of his chance with the Major League club.

As for the Mets line up Omar should make a play for a bat such as Nick Johnson or Jermaine Dye. If I were Omar I would try to make a trade for Nick Johnson and Joel Hanrahan (who has pitched much better than his stats would show). He has a 11.1 K/9 and a 3.90 FIP. He walks a little much but he also has a completely unsustainable .458 BABIP. Johnson would be a great pickup because of his great OBP and ususally good defense at 1b (although this year so far he has not been so good). He has however had a bit of luck on his side with a .383 BABIP which boosts his BA. Getting Johnson would also mean that Carlos Delgado would not have to be rushed back. The only setback would be that he can only play 1b and that would mean moving Murph back to the outfield while sending F Mart back to the minors (or possibly sending Murph to the minors). Hanrahan would be a good addition to the bullpen. Josh Willingham would also be a nice addition in place of Nick Johnson. If we could get these guys relatively cheap I would jump on the opportunity. We do not need to clear out the farm system for guys like Carlos Lee or Matt Holliday. Keep FMart, Holt, Mejia, Thole, Flores, Marte, etc.

If Omar however does not make a trade, the Mets should hope and pray that they can stay afloat in time for Perez, Putz, Wagner, Reyes, and Delgado to come back. Please be smart Omar and make a move for a solid but not spectacular bat like Johnson or Willingham.

Castro for Broadway?

Last night after Omir Santos' heroics won the game for the Mets, Omar traded Ramon Castro to the White Sox for RHP Lance Broadway thus ensuring that Omir and Brian Schnider will be the Mets' catchers from here on out. Lance Broadway was a former top prospect in the White Sox organization who has not put up good numbers. The good thing about him is that he has a good GB/FB rate at 1.70 for his minor league career. Now as for right now I have to say I do not like the trade. Maybe this could turn out to be another Maine type of trade where Omar picks up a former top prospect who fell out of favor and then can turn it around with the Mets. However until we get there I cannot approve of the trade. Is it possible that Omir is a late bloomer offensively and has finally come into his own? Yes, of course it's possible. But likely? No. He is 28 years old and has never put up an OPS more than .700 other than this year whereas Castro has a career OPS of .729. Omir may be a better defender but I don't feel like the difference in their defense is enough to justify the trade. The front office thinks that his defense and his ability to call a game makes him so valuable. Even with the good year he is having so far his OBP is still only .306. That is not good by any stretch of the imagination. I hope that I am wrong and he has finally turned a corner and will continue to be good for the rest of the year. I also hope that Broadway turns out be another John Maine-type of deal. Prove me wrong guys. Please.

F-Mart Has Arrived

The Mets have placed Jose Reyes and Ryan Church on the 15-Day DL and thus called up top prospect, 20 year old Fernando Martinez. They also acquired 31 year old SS Wilson Valdez from the Indians for cash. I'm cautiously optimistic and excited about what F-Mart can do. Yes he is 20 years old but his age hasn't stopped him at any other level of the minors where he has continuously been among the youngest players in the league and still continued to perform. I wouldn't be surprised about anything the kid does. If he comes up and rakes I wouldn't be surprised. On the other hand if he comes up and does nothing, I also wouldn't be surprised. As for Valdez, he is obviously just a stopgap for the Reyes injury. He is more experienced and a better defended than Ramon Martinez.

Also, watching tonights game versus the Nationals makes me wish the Mets had done a little bit more during the offseason. Adam Dunn would have been a great pick up for the Mets. He just picked up his 1000th career hit , 29% of which have been hit for homeruns. He is only second on the list of people with 1000 hits in that percentage trailing only Mark McGwire who hit almost 36% of his hits for HRs. The Mets would have that power bat which they lack with Delgado on the DL. I also wish the Mets still had Pedro just so we could have 3 Martinez's on the roster. He also most likely would be pitching better than Livan who isn't pitching terribly but also not pitching great either.

Injuries, injuries and more injuries

So the Mets have just come off of a 5-5 road trip which is actually good considering the events surrounding the games. First the Mets started off by winning 3 of 4 from the Giants. They then lost 3 straight to the Dodgers who hold the best record in baseball (and a spectacular home record). Then we won 2 of 3 from the Red Sox who also have a great home record. Now what is amazing (especially the Sox games) is that the Mets did this without their clean up hitter Delgado, their starting catcher Schnider (although Santos has been great), their number 4 starter Perez, and their lead off man Reyes. Also they lost superb backup Alex Cora to a torn ligament in his thumb.They lost Ryan Church to a hip and hamstring issue (which had been bothering him since spring training). Putz was dealing with shoulder soreness in the beginning of the trip. Beltran's knee started acting up and wasn't able to play the field against the Sox. K-Rod had back spasms that forced him to break down and go to a hospital immediately although he appears fine now. It is amazing that the Mets won the series against the Sox. They won against Dice-K and then Big Pelf stepped up against Beckett and both pitched great games but Omir came out the victor against Papelbon and some great defense from Wright, Martinez (who is also now hurt), and Castillo ended a great game.

Now the Mets have some issues to address heading forward. With Church likely to go on the DL (which he should) should the Mets call up top prospect Fernando Martinez (who is playing great so far in AAA despite being 20) and play him everyday? Or do the Mets call up Willy Mo Pena for some much needed power with Delgado and Church being out? Or should the Mets make a trade for someone such as Nick Johnson or Jermaine Dye? I love Johnson but think Dye would be a better fit because he may come cheaper and the Mets could keep Murphy at first rather than moving him back to LF. The pitching has been solid with Santana continuing to be Santana and Big Pelf being very solid (despite some yips that caused balks) especially when his secondary pitches were working like they were against the Sox. Maine seems to be coming around while Redding and Hernandez are pitching well enough. Perez was pitching in some simulated games and pitched pretty well and normal. He stuck out a lot and walked alot. Vintage Perez. Hopefully Sean Green can figure out whats wrong and come around. Hopefully Putz and K-Rod can get and stay healthy. Hopefully Parnell continues to be awesome (he hit a career high 100mph on the radar gun Saturday against the Sox by the way). I remain cautiously optomistic because of what I saw against the Sox this weekend. The Mets never gave up and played some good baseball (despite some errors and poor pitching Sunday).

Carlos Voltron

http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/05/22/five-things-you-may-not-know/

Appreciate What We Have

I want to take this time to appreciate a couple of Mets: one who never gets the credit he deserves and one who usually does but it took some time last year for Met fans to warm up to him. I'm of course talking about Carlos Beltran and Johan Santana.

Carlos Beltran has been spectacular not only this year but for his entire career as a Met with the exception of 2005 where he still played fantastic defense. In Beltran we may have the best CF in baseball. You can argue all you want about CF's who do things better than Beltran but there is not one out there who does everything as well as Beltran. Does Hamilton hit for more power than Beltran? Does Carlos Gomez play better defense? Does Ichiro hit for a higher average than Beltran? Yes they all do. However Beltran is one of the truly underappreciated players in the game today. He plays like a superstar and doesn't get the credit for it. He is a real 5-tool player. He hits for power and a decent average. He plays fantastic defense in the outfield and has a great arm. He has good speed and is a smart base running (all time leader in SB success rate). Beltran makes everything he does look easy especially playing the outfield. He is a quiet guy but wants to win. At first I was not a fan of Beltran but now he has become one of my favorite players. He is underrated by Met fans and does not deserve to be seeing as he excels at every aspect of the game. This year he has been one of the best hitters in the league hitting .383. While that is not going to stay that high as shown by a ridiculous .430 BABIP. Beltran could be on his way to have a monster year.

The other Met who was at first underappreciated is none other than Johan Santana. Santana is spectacular. Arguably the best pitcher in baseball. This year he has a remarkable 6 game start to the year with a K/9 at 12.25, an identical WHIP and ERA standing at .91, and only a 4-1 record. Since last July Santana has been unstoppable even after getting knee surgery in the offseason. Another scary part is that Santana's opposition's BABIP is .275, not far off from his career .286 mark. Santana has been ridiculous and rightfully won NL Pitcher of the Month for April. Santana could be on his way to the one of the best seasons by a Mets pitcher (although Seaver's '69 and Gooden's '85 will be hard to top). Thank you Omar for bringing him in which is now looking like a steal for the Mets even though there is still time for the youngsters in the Twins organization to bloom. There has been talk about the Mets rotation being bad behind Santana. However lately everyone outside how Oliver Perez has been doing their part with solid outings from Livan, Maine, and Big Pelf. Niese will get a start tonight against the Pirates and Redding's return on the horizon. Things are looking up for the rotation especially if Ollie's DL trip sets him straight.