Friday, March 27, 2009

Ollie P and Consistency

For all of those who claim that Oliver Perez is inconsistent, go check out this article over at Amazin' Avenue. As you can see from the article, while the measurement may not be perfect, Perez is not as inconsistent as fans may think. I've always been a fan of Oliver Perez and I think (and hope) he will be able to get his head straight and lower his walk totals during the course of his contract with the Mets. If he does, he will be one of the better pitchers in the league.

Friday, March 20, 2009

Mets Season Outlook

As of writing this I am going to assume the Mets make no more acquisitions this offseason. For the 2009 season I think the Mets' success will depend on their health (much like it did last year). If everyone can stay healthy I think that the Mets will win the division and go far in theplayoffs. That is a big IF however. Santana has already had a spring training injury scare and he is a huge part to the Mets success. I'm not worried about Maine as much as other people are considering he is coming off of minor offseason ebow surgery. Along with Perez, Maine is the other wild card in the rotation. Maine has potential to be a Cy Young winner in my opinon (and of some scouts). Maine needs to keep his pitch count low and go after hitters more rather than pitcher around them or pitch for the K. He also needs to think less and pitch more. Perez also has a ton of potential but is very inconsistent but when he's on he is one of the best as witnessed by his past July. If he can lower his walk rates, he will be one of the better pitchers in the league. It's all a matter of harnessing his mind and control. Pelfrey is a concern because of the "Verducci Effect" which basically states that if a young pitcher pitchers a significant amount of innings more than his previous year, he is due for an injury. I think he'll be fine and have a good year but maybe not as much as some optomists. As for the fifth starer, I do not think Livan will have a good year. I would much rather see the Mets resign Pedro and have him pitch in the 5th staters spot. He has more upside and is a smarter pitcher. Livan and Garcia will be useful in AAA for when Pedro or another starter gets injured. I would also advocate signing Sheets later in the year for when he is able to come back.

The Mets will have a good offensive going into next year although they won't be great. They could possibly be the beset 3,4,5, in baseball with Wright, Beltran, Delgado and thats not even including Reyes at leadoff. Church, Murphy, Castillo, Scnider/Castro, and the Pitcher won't be great but they will be solid. I expect a solid year from Castillo. Due to their solid core, they will be one of the better offensive teams in the league.

As for the bullpen, if K-Rod and Putz are healthy, the Mets will have the best 8th and 9th inning combo in baseball. Feliciano is a solid lefty and the rest of the 'pen is still to be determined. Parnell, Green and Stokes appear to be the candidates for the reset of the 'pen. Like in '06, the Mets could have one of the best pens in the league.

So assuming everyone stays healthy, the Mets will essentially be last year except with a better bullpen, which would win them in the mid-90's in wins. However, no one can assume no injuries so I'll predict 92 wins and a division title.

Mets Offseason

So far this offseason the Mets have added K-Rod, JJ Putz, Sean Green, Alex Cora, Cory Sullivan, Jeremy Reed, Tim Redding, Bobby Kielty, Darren O'Day, Rocky Cherry(offered back to O's but they rejected, and could be resigned), Connor Robertson Jose Valentine, Freddy Garcia, Livan Hernandez, and resigned Oliver Perez and Fernando Tatis. The Mets lost Pedro Martinez, Duaner Sanchez, Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Endy Chavez, Scott Schoenweis, Mike Carp, Ezequiel Carrera, Maikel Cleto, and some minor leaguers (not very noteworthy). All in all I think it was a good offseason (especially considering how Madoff screwed the Wilpons), although they could have done better.

Bad Moves: From an offensive standpoint I think the Mets still should have signed Dunn, Abreu, or Orlando Hudson (especially Abreu seeing as he signed for about $5 million) to play left field (and move Dunn to first after this year) and kept Murphy in the minors for one more year but it's not a terrible move seeing as Murphy continues to impress me (although I still feel many Mets fans overrate him). Tim Redding was signed for too much seeing as he doesn't have much upside and he is coming off of offseason surgery and is now injured. Cora was signed for too much as well to be a back up infielder. Combined they'll make about $5 million which is about what Abreu signed for and while I'm not an Abreu fan, he's way too good to turn down for that price. Also, I think that the Mets should have gotten more for Schoenewies, who for all the shit he took was a very effective LOGGY. As for the fifth starer's position I would have tried to get one of the two starters the Red Sox got: Smoltz or Penny. Smart moves on the Sox part. I also would have (and still would) sign Pedro because he has more upside than Livan Hernandez or Freddy Garcia. Although reports are that the Mets have made Pedro a $1-2 million dollar offer with incentives, which is a very smart move. I feel last year was a fluke because Pedro was never able to get into a groove due to injuries and the death of his father (whom he was very close to).

Good Moves: The K-Rod aquisition was a very good move (although I may have gone in a different direction) especailly seeing as he should be entering his prime now. The Mets also made a potentially great trade by obtaining JJ Putz, who was arguably the best closer in baseball from 2006-2007. Last year was injury filled and if he can bounce back to anywhere around his 06-07, form he'll be better than K-Rod. Reed who came in that trade, could play a big part this year if he makes the team. He is supposedly a great defensive outfielder who was once a top prospect becaue of his bat. If he can ever reach some of his potential he'll have a big year. Sean Green could also big a big part of the bullpen as a ground ball specialist. Hitters have said their at-bats against Green are always "uncomfortable" which is always a good thing from a pitchers standpoint. The Oliver Perez signing was good for a few reasons: 1) His deal is better than what the Braves gave Lowe because of their age and upside. 2) The timing of the deal. If Omar had waited, Sheets injury would have come out and demand would have gone up for Perez. 3) No other reliable options on the market. The Tatis signing was good as he could be a solid bat off the bench. I also really like the Jose Valentine minor league signing because although he won't make the team, he'll be good to have as a mentor in camp and in the minors as a backup. The Darren O'Day Rule V pick looks like a smart one as he may make the team as a Chad Bradford-type of pitcher. I would like to see the Mets sign Shawn Hill to a minor league deal (he was just cut by the Nationals).

So far the roster looks like this (with a few questions about last bench spots):
1b: Delgado
2b: Castillo
3b: Wright
ss: Reyes
c: Schnider
lf: Murphy
rf: Church
cf: Beltran
bn: Castro
bn: Anderson
bn: Cora
bn: Tatis
bn: Sullivan (?)
bn: Evans (?)- I think he should stay in minors
bn: Kielty (?)
bn: Reed (?)

sp: Santana
sp: Maine
sp: Perez
sp: Pelfrey
sp: Hernandez
rp: K-Rod
rp: Putz
rp: Feliciano
rp: Green
rp: Stokes (?)
rp: O'Day (?)
rp: Parnell (?)- I really like Parnell in the bullpen

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Starting Back Up

Yea I was pretty lazy/busy for most of the offseason so I didn't really post much. Now that Spring Training is here I'm starting the blog back up.