Alternate Holliday Options

If the Mets decide not to sign Holliday, what should they do?

• Alfonso Soriano may be on the chopping block and although his contract is quite large, the Mets may not have to give up much if they are willing to pay for most of the contract. Outside of this past year, he has been very productive and has actually been a good LF.
• Bringing Mike Cameron back would be nice if it's for a low price. He's a solid hitter who can hit 15-20 HRs, get on base at a decent clip, and run the bases well. This is all not to mention he is still a good outfielder despite his age. The only problem with getting Cameron would be the need to upgrade another position significantly offensively.
• A Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez trade would be fantastic although it would wipe out the Mets farm system. Fielder has immense power and has improved on defense so he is nearly exactly average at 1B. Gonzalez is a slightly worse hitter and slightly better fielder. I would prefer Fielder over Gonzalez. The only people I'd be hesitant to give up in a trade for either would be Mejia, Flores and F-Mart. Would a Davis, Holt, Niese, Parnell deal get the job done? Possibly. We'd probably have to give up F-Mart and our farm system would be depleted.
• A Fielder trade and Mike Cameron signing would be very nice and we'd have enough available money to sign Lackey. Would he be worth it? He is an good pitcher and has done well in big games but he does come with a bit of an injury history and at 30 years old would he be worth more than a 4 year deal?

I've Been Thinking...

I've been thinking about the last post about my offseason moves and I've changed my mind on several things. Here is my updated offseason semi-realistic wish list along with contractual agreements for the year.
Right now the Mets roster looks like this:

C - Omir Santos - $400K
C - Josh Thole - $400K
1B - Daniel Murphy - $401K
2B - Luis Castillo - $6MM
SS - Jose Reyes - $9MM
3B - David Wright - $10MM
IF - Anderson Hernandez - $400K
LF - Angel Pagan - $575K+
CF - Carlos Beltran - $18.5MM
RF - Jeff Francoeur - $3.375MM+
OF - Cory Sullivan - $600K+
OF - Jeremy Reed - $925K+
1B/LF - Nick Evans - $403K or OF - Fernando Martinez - $400K

SP - Johan Santana - $21MM
SP - John Maine - $2.6MM+
SP - Mike Pelfrey - $1.3125MM
SP - Oliver Perez - $12MM
SP - Jon Niese - $400K

Other candidates: Fernando Nieve - $414K, Tim Redding - $2.25MM+

RP - Francisco Rodriguez - $11.5MM
RP - Pedro Feliciano - $1.6125MM+
RP - Sean Green - $471K+
RP - Pat Misch - $402K
RP - Bobby Parnell - $400K
RP - Brian Stokes - $410K
RP - Carlos Muniz - $402K

Other commitments: J.J. Putz - $1MM buyout

If they keep their payroll about the same as this year (approx. $140 mil.) they should have about $25-$30 million to spend. That also doesn't include the fact that the Wilpons said that $ wouldn't be an issue but who knows with them.

Here is what I would do:

• Keep Castillo, Reyes, Wright, and Beltran at their positions.
• Don't pick up Putz's option but resign him to a deal that could be worth up to about $8 million with incentives.
• Keep F-Mart, Niese, Holt, Mejia, and Flores.
• Trade some mid-level prospects for either Ricky Nolasco or Aaron Harang, both coming off of poor, unlucky, and injury riddled years. Both are good pitchers who could benefit from a change of scenery, particularly Harang who would benefit from the Mets' strong outfield defense and large dimensions.
  
• Trade some minor leaguers for Chris Ianetta if he's available. If not sign Gregg Zaun to a one year deal with Santos as the backup. Also try to bring Brian Schnider back on a minor league deal.
• Sign Mark Prior, Chad Cordero, and Jorge Julio to minor league contracts.
• Sign (preferrably) Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets, or Rich Harden to a one year incentive based deal.
  
• Put Parnell back in the bullpen.
• Keep Nieve and Figueroa in the minors as back up SPs.
• Send Reed an Sullivan to minors or non tender them.
• Use Carter, Evans, Valdez (who I would resign), and Pagan as the back ups.
  
• Sign Holliday to a 4 or 5 year deal at around $20 million/year and I'd be willing to go as high as 6 years at $115 mil.
  
• If there's enough money sign Delgado to a one year incentive based deal while turning Murphy into a super-sub. If there's not enough $ then...
• Keep Murphy at first. He was the second best defensive 1b in the NL this year according to UZR. He is developing as a hitter and had a solid second half. I'm not saying he'll end up like him BUT Tino Martinez's rookie season and Murphy's are nearly identical.
  
• Possibly bring Hank Blalock to platoon with Murphy. He has legitimate power and is a solid 1b (even if it is a small sample size) coming off of a unlucky season.
  

I'm Back

I really haven't posted in a long time because I've been writing a good deal for playerpress.com but I wanted to come back here too so I'll post on both. I miss the ignorant comment battles. Before I start talking about what I want the Mets to do in the offseason I want to say that I knew Pedro would be pitching well and it hurts to see him on the Phills. Anyway moving to the offseason:

• Resign Delgado to a one year incentive based deal.
• Turn Murphy into a super-sub. He is not the 1b of the future, Ike Davis is.
• Sign Holliday to a 4 or 5 year deal. He is good on defense as well as offense.
• DO NOT TRADE Beltran, Reyes, or Wright.
• Trade Francouer and a minor leaguer for Aaron Harang.
• Pick up Putz option.
• Put Parnell back in the bullpen
  
• Bring back Tatis back on a one year deal.
  
• Replace Sheffield with Nick Evans.
• Sign Chad Cordero, Jorge Julio, andMark Prior to minor league deals.
• Sign either Bedard or Sheets to a minor league deal if they would accept it. If not a one year incentive based deal.
• Try to trade for Chris Iannetta or Chris Snyder but if either are too expensive bring back Schnider on a minor league deal and stick with a Thole/Santos platoon in the majors.
• Bring back Xavier Nady to play RF on a one or two year deal.
  

Player Press

Hey guys I got a job of sorts writing for playerpress.com so go check that out as well as here.

Bad News for Mets

Mets have recently learned that Reyes has a tear in his hamstring and will not return until about the All-Star Break. J.J. Putz will also have surgery to remove the bone spurs in his elbow and should return in about 3 months. The good news for the Mets is that Alex Cora is back so we don't have to deal with Malo or any other no hit SS to continue to fill in 100% of the time. In other good news is that Ryan Church should back Sunday. What Manuel is planning to do is split time at SS between Cora and Valdez with Cora getting the majority of starts. As for the outfield situation Manuel plans to have Beltran start in CF, continue start Fernando Martinez (who has hit around .333 since his 0 for 9 start) in left or right, and having Sheffield and Church split time in order to keep Shef fresh. I hope and still think that Church can be a productive starting right rielder while Sheff can continue to be a productive bat (although he needs to stay healthy).

To replace Putz on the roster the Mets have called up former top prospect Fernando Nieve. Nieve has always had good stuff but had failed to put it all together. He has done a pretty good job in the minors posting FIP's of 2.98 and 3.61 at AA and AAA with K/9's of 9.33 and 8.51. Hopefully this is Nieve putting together all the talent he has and making the most out of his chance with the Major League club.

As for the Mets line up Omar should make a play for a bat such as Nick Johnson or Jermaine Dye. If I were Omar I would try to make a trade for Nick Johnson and Joel Hanrahan (who has pitched much better than his stats would show). He has a 11.1 K/9 and a 3.90 FIP. He walks a little much but he also has a completely unsustainable .458 BABIP. Johnson would be a great pickup because of his great OBP and ususally good defense at 1b (although this year so far he has not been so good). He has however had a bit of luck on his side with a .383 BABIP which boosts his BA. Getting Johnson would also mean that Carlos Delgado would not have to be rushed back. The only setback would be that he can only play 1b and that would mean moving Murph back to the outfield while sending F Mart back to the minors (or possibly sending Murph to the minors). Hanrahan would be a good addition to the bullpen. Josh Willingham would also be a nice addition in place of Nick Johnson. If we could get these guys relatively cheap I would jump on the opportunity. We do not need to clear out the farm system for guys like Carlos Lee or Matt Holliday. Keep FMart, Holt, Mejia, Thole, Flores, Marte, etc.

If Omar however does not make a trade, the Mets should hope and pray that they can stay afloat in time for Perez, Putz, Wagner, Reyes, and Delgado to come back. Please be smart Omar and make a move for a solid but not spectacular bat like Johnson or Willingham.

Castro for Broadway?

Last night after Omir Santos' heroics won the game for the Mets, Omar traded Ramon Castro to the White Sox for RHP Lance Broadway thus ensuring that Omir and Brian Schnider will be the Mets' catchers from here on out. Lance Broadway was a former top prospect in the White Sox organization who has not put up good numbers. The good thing about him is that he has a good GB/FB rate at 1.70 for his minor league career. Now as for right now I have to say I do not like the trade. Maybe this could turn out to be another Maine type of trade where Omar picks up a former top prospect who fell out of favor and then can turn it around with the Mets. However until we get there I cannot approve of the trade. Is it possible that Omir is a late bloomer offensively and has finally come into his own? Yes, of course it's possible. But likely? No. He is 28 years old and has never put up an OPS more than .700 other than this year whereas Castro has a career OPS of .729. Omir may be a better defender but I don't feel like the difference in their defense is enough to justify the trade. The front office thinks that his defense and his ability to call a game makes him so valuable. Even with the good year he is having so far his OBP is still only .306. That is not good by any stretch of the imagination. I hope that I am wrong and he has finally turned a corner and will continue to be good for the rest of the year. I also hope that Broadway turns out be another John Maine-type of deal. Prove me wrong guys. Please.

F-Mart Has Arrived

The Mets have placed Jose Reyes and Ryan Church on the 15-Day DL and thus called up top prospect, 20 year old Fernando Martinez. They also acquired 31 year old SS Wilson Valdez from the Indians for cash. I'm cautiously optimistic and excited about what F-Mart can do. Yes he is 20 years old but his age hasn't stopped him at any other level of the minors where he has continuously been among the youngest players in the league and still continued to perform. I wouldn't be surprised about anything the kid does. If he comes up and rakes I wouldn't be surprised. On the other hand if he comes up and does nothing, I also wouldn't be surprised. As for Valdez, he is obviously just a stopgap for the Reyes injury. He is more experienced and a better defended than Ramon Martinez.

Also, watching tonights game versus the Nationals makes me wish the Mets had done a little bit more during the offseason. Adam Dunn would have been a great pick up for the Mets. He just picked up his 1000th career hit , 29% of which have been hit for homeruns. He is only second on the list of people with 1000 hits in that percentage trailing only Mark McGwire who hit almost 36% of his hits for HRs. The Mets would have that power bat which they lack with Delgado on the DL. I also wish the Mets still had Pedro just so we could have 3 Martinez's on the roster. He also most likely would be pitching better than Livan who isn't pitching terribly but also not pitching great either.

Injuries, injuries and more injuries

So the Mets have just come off of a 5-5 road trip which is actually good considering the events surrounding the games. First the Mets started off by winning 3 of 4 from the Giants. They then lost 3 straight to the Dodgers who hold the best record in baseball (and a spectacular home record). Then we won 2 of 3 from the Red Sox who also have a great home record. Now what is amazing (especially the Sox games) is that the Mets did this without their clean up hitter Delgado, their starting catcher Schnider (although Santos has been great), their number 4 starter Perez, and their lead off man Reyes. Also they lost superb backup Alex Cora to a torn ligament in his thumb.They lost Ryan Church to a hip and hamstring issue (which had been bothering him since spring training). Putz was dealing with shoulder soreness in the beginning of the trip. Beltran's knee started acting up and wasn't able to play the field against the Sox. K-Rod had back spasms that forced him to break down and go to a hospital immediately although he appears fine now. It is amazing that the Mets won the series against the Sox. They won against Dice-K and then Big Pelf stepped up against Beckett and both pitched great games but Omir came out the victor against Papelbon and some great defense from Wright, Martinez (who is also now hurt), and Castillo ended a great game.

Now the Mets have some issues to address heading forward. With Church likely to go on the DL (which he should) should the Mets call up top prospect Fernando Martinez (who is playing great so far in AAA despite being 20) and play him everyday? Or do the Mets call up Willy Mo Pena for some much needed power with Delgado and Church being out? Or should the Mets make a trade for someone such as Nick Johnson or Jermaine Dye? I love Johnson but think Dye would be a better fit because he may come cheaper and the Mets could keep Murphy at first rather than moving him back to LF. The pitching has been solid with Santana continuing to be Santana and Big Pelf being very solid (despite some yips that caused balks) especially when his secondary pitches were working like they were against the Sox. Maine seems to be coming around while Redding and Hernandez are pitching well enough. Perez was pitching in some simulated games and pitched pretty well and normal. He stuck out a lot and walked alot. Vintage Perez. Hopefully Sean Green can figure out whats wrong and come around. Hopefully Putz and K-Rod can get and stay healthy. Hopefully Parnell continues to be awesome (he hit a career high 100mph on the radar gun Saturday against the Sox by the way). I remain cautiously optomistic because of what I saw against the Sox this weekend. The Mets never gave up and played some good baseball (despite some errors and poor pitching Sunday).

Carlos Voltron

http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/05/22/five-things-you-may-not-know/

Appreciate What We Have

I want to take this time to appreciate a couple of Mets: one who never gets the credit he deserves and one who usually does but it took some time last year for Met fans to warm up to him. I'm of course talking about Carlos Beltran and Johan Santana.

Carlos Beltran has been spectacular not only this year but for his entire career as a Met with the exception of 2005 where he still played fantastic defense. In Beltran we may have the best CF in baseball. You can argue all you want about CF's who do things better than Beltran but there is not one out there who does everything as well as Beltran. Does Hamilton hit for more power than Beltran? Does Carlos Gomez play better defense? Does Ichiro hit for a higher average than Beltran? Yes they all do. However Beltran is one of the truly underappreciated players in the game today. He plays like a superstar and doesn't get the credit for it. He is a real 5-tool player. He hits for power and a decent average. He plays fantastic defense in the outfield and has a great arm. He has good speed and is a smart base running (all time leader in SB success rate). Beltran makes everything he does look easy especially playing the outfield. He is a quiet guy but wants to win. At first I was not a fan of Beltran but now he has become one of my favorite players. He is underrated by Met fans and does not deserve to be seeing as he excels at every aspect of the game. This year he has been one of the best hitters in the league hitting .383. While that is not going to stay that high as shown by a ridiculous .430 BABIP. Beltran could be on his way to have a monster year.

The other Met who was at first underappreciated is none other than Johan Santana. Santana is spectacular. Arguably the best pitcher in baseball. This year he has a remarkable 6 game start to the year with a K/9 at 12.25, an identical WHIP and ERA standing at .91, and only a 4-1 record. Since last July Santana has been unstoppable even after getting knee surgery in the offseason. Another scary part is that Santana's opposition's BABIP is .275, not far off from his career .286 mark. Santana has been ridiculous and rightfully won NL Pitcher of the Month for April. Santana could be on his way to the one of the best seasons by a Mets pitcher (although Seaver's '69 and Gooden's '85 will be hard to top). Thank you Omar for bringing him in which is now looking like a steal for the Mets even though there is still time for the youngsters in the Twins organization to bloom. There has been talk about the Mets rotation being bad behind Santana. However lately everyone outside how Oliver Perez has been doing their part with solid outings from Livan, Maine, and Big Pelf. Niese will get a start tonight against the Pirates and Redding's return on the horizon. Things are looking up for the rotation especially if Ollie's DL trip sets him straight.

Perez

Oliver Perez was first demoted to the bullpen but now he is being put on the 15 day DL with patella tendinitis. Hopefully, he can return from the injury strong and hopefully live up the potential he has flashed at times in his career. The Mets will call up Jon Niese to start Friday. He is not pitching well at AAA but I can't say I dislike the move. It will be good to get him some more innings versus MLB clubs but in no way do I think he is ready to be on the MLB club full time. He still needs time to develop in AAA. I probably would have called up Figueroa but I can't say this is necesarily a bad move.

Update: I actually was not thinking when I originally wrote this article. Calling up Niese is a good move because he doesn't have to be put through waivers to go back tot he minors unlike Figgy.

Peavy

Right now the Mets are not playing great baseball. They have been decent their last 5 games, winning 3 of them. The biggest concern with the Mets is probably their rotation. If I were Omar I would get on the phone with Kevin Towers, Padres GM, and try to work out a deal for Peavy. Yes, Peavy does have a no-trade clause and can dictate if he wants to come to the Mets or not. If Peavy wants to win it would be smart to accept a trade to the Mets. This also wouldn't be a rental player for the Mets because Peavy is signed through 2012 with an option for 2013. He is making $11 this year, $15 million next year, $16 million in 2011, $17 mil in 2012, and $22 in 2013 if the club picks up the option (or $4 mil buy out). The Mets would probably have to give up Fernando Martinez and Jon Niese along with some other players (Flores, Marte, maybe even Dan Murphy). Would the Mets farm system be depleted? Yes, but in my eyes it is worth it because of what we are recieving in return. The Mets would have the deadliest 1-2 punch in baseball in both their rotation and bullpen in Johan, Peavy, Putz and K-Rod. It would take pressure off of Perez and Maine, both of whose biggest problem is their own mind. With Peavy, the Mets could have the best rotation in baseball depending on how Pelfry's arm holds up, if Ollie can reach his potential, and if Maine can build off of his last start versus the Marlins. The Mets time to win is now and Peavy could be the piece that puts us over the top. Plus he is having a not so great season so we maybe able to get him for a bit cheaper than usual. Win now while Beltran and Johan are in their prime and before Delgado's production falls off.

Redding, Church, LOB, and Pitching

So in about 10 days Tim Redding will be ready to come back from the DL and join the major league club. The question is where will he be put? He could be the long man out of the pen or the 5th starter. If he goes to the pen who will be cut? Parnell has options so he can be sent to the minors without chance of losing him but he has been good so far and has become one of Manuel's favorites out of the pen. The logical choice would be Casey Fossum who has not done well at all for the major league club and almost cost them Figureoa. However he is the only other lefty out of the pen besides Feliciano. I would cut Fossum and hope he doesn't get claimed off of waivers. The other option would be to cut Livan and have Redding take over as the 5th starter, or cut Fossum and move Livan to the pen to be the long man which could make sense because Livan has been solid the first few innings and then blows up. The Mets could also try to send Ollie to the minors although he would have to accept the assignment. Ollie has had one good start and 3 bad ones. He needs to turn it around.

Ryan Church has been everything the Mets could have asked for this year. He has had the most pressure put on him from a roster POV. From Manuel claiming Murphy would be the regular LF and Church may lose playing time, to singing Sheffield and Willy Mo Pena. Church has responded well by playing his usual good defense, and hitting well (.358 BA). Manuel however continues to bench him against lefties in place of Tatis (who is one of my favorites) and Sheff (who I'm begining to like a little bit more) . I understand the need to have Tatis and Sheff getting at bats but I think Church has showed he should be in the line up everyday. If you want to get Sheff and Church at bats bench Delgado (who could use a day off because he has been slumping lately) and Murphy and put Sheff and Tatis in. I love Church and think he has done everything we could have asked and is the main reason the trade is looking more and more like a success.

The Mets have done a terrible job at hitting with men on base. The Mets should be doing much better than their record shows. They have several players hitting over .300, with Beltran and Castillo being 1 and 2 in hitting in the league. They will eventually start to hit with men on base but it is a serious problem now. They are putting too much pressure on themselves in these situations.

The Mets other problem is their starting rotation. Santana has been absolutely amazing. He is leading the league in ERA and has just been fantastic. Maine had a rough opening to the season but should come back around and has had a solid outing last game. Pelfry pitched good yesterday but was terrible earlier in the year when dealing with his tendonitis. I don't think he'll be as good as the Mets expected this year. I like Big Pelf alot and think he will eventually be a very good number 2 possibly even number 1 pitcher, just not yet. Livan has been ok and actually better than expected. He pitches good early in the games and then falls apart which has also been Ollie's problem. Ollie has been terrible. He pitched one good game against the Padres and has been terrible otherwise, usually beeing good early in the game then falling apart around the fifth inning. I think he will turn it around but his velocity is down and he needs to make some changes because he can't continue pitching like this.

The one truly bright spot is the bullpen. The Mets pen has been spectacular and should continue to be throughout the year. The Mets for the first time in history have a power pen with Parnell, Stokes, K-Rod, and Putz all bringing the mid-90's heat. Putz's velocity has been down a little bit but I think it'll be back soon. Feliciano hasn't been great but he should get a little bit better. Fossum hasn't been good and I would have liked to see Figuroea stay as the long man after his decent start. I'm really glad he came back after the way the Mets screwed up by cutting him for Fossum. I love Figgy and he'll be good as depth for the rotation/bullpen. Redding will be back soon which will strenghten the bullpen. The Mets will definitely be playing better the rest of th year and won't continue playing as poorly has they have.

WILLY MO!!!!

The Mets signed Willy Mo Pena to a minor league contract. I love Willy Mo since he was playing on the Staten Island Yankees. This is a good low risk/high reward type of move because Willy Mo is still young and has tremendous power.

Figueroa's DFA and Fossum's Up

Nelson Figueroa was designated for assignment today after pitching a decent game in place of Pelfrey. The Mets called up Casey Fossum to replace Figueroa. Fossum was once a top prospect but never panned out. He's a lefty starter who will be used out of the bullpen. I love Figueroa but it makes sense to bring up Fossum because he has more upside and is another lefty to compliment Feliciano.

O'Day Gone and Figueroa's Back

With the news that Mike Pelfrey has tendinitis in arm and will thus be skipped today in the rotation, Nelson Figueroa will be called up to take his spot in the rotation and Darren O'Day will be placed on Rule V waivers, which means if no team claims him he must be offered back to the Angels. I liked O'Day and would have put Pelfrey on the DL instead. However it looks like he will be able to make his next start. I love Nelson Figueroa so I cannot be too upset about the move, especially since he will be the long man out of the bullpen for those days when Bad Ollie shows up. The Mets rotation is clearly the biggest question mark this season. Will Oliver Perez live up to his potential? Will John Maine get back on track after his minor surgery in the offseason? Will Pelfrey live up to his potential and avoid the "Verducci Effect"? Will Livan Hernandez stay solid or will he go back to the guy who had an ERA over 6 last year? Will Johan Santana continue to be absolutely amazing? I am optimistic about the rotation when it comes to Johan, Maine, and Ollie. Pelfrey I am not as optimistic about for this year. I actually love Pelfrey but I dont think he will have as good of a year as everyone expects. I think he will be a very good pitcher in a year or two but I don't think that year is now. Let's hope I'm wrong.

Sheff is a Met

The Mets signed Gary Sheffield yesterday. Sheff was released by the Tigers earlier in the week. I personally hate Sheff more than any player with the exception of Roger Clemens. However this may not be that bad of a move. He was signed for the league minimum which means it won't be a problem to cut him. He is a right handed power bat off the bench which is exactly what the Mets needed. As long as Sheff's personality doens't cause too much turmoil in the clubhouse then I think this move could turn out to be a pretty decent one. The signing will probably end Marlon Anderson's time with the Mets which I have mixed feelings about. He was terrible last year but he was also battling injuries the whole year. I had high hopes for him because I do really like him but he was a bad fielder and a left handed bat without a lot of power. He was however a great clubhouse figure and a good leader. Hopefully Sheff's onfield prescence can overcome Anderson's off field prescence. Also, Sheff going for his 500th HR may bring some more fans into the stands from the Wilpons' point of view.

Ollie P and Consistency

For all of those who claim that Oliver Perez is inconsistent, go check out this article over at Amazin' Avenue. As you can see from the article, while the measurement may not be perfect, Perez is not as inconsistent as fans may think. I've always been a fan of Oliver Perez and I think (and hope) he will be able to get his head straight and lower his walk totals during the course of his contract with the Mets. If he does, he will be one of the better pitchers in the league.

Mets Season Outlook

As of writing this I am going to assume the Mets make no more acquisitions this offseason. For the 2009 season I think the Mets' success will depend on their health (much like it did last year). If everyone can stay healthy I think that the Mets will win the division and go far in theplayoffs. That is a big IF however. Santana has already had a spring training injury scare and he is a huge part to the Mets success. I'm not worried about Maine as much as other people are considering he is coming off of minor offseason ebow surgery. Along with Perez, Maine is the other wild card in the rotation. Maine has potential to be a Cy Young winner in my opinon (and of some scouts). Maine needs to keep his pitch count low and go after hitters more rather than pitcher around them or pitch for the K. He also needs to think less and pitch more. Perez also has a ton of potential but is very inconsistent but when he's on he is one of the best as witnessed by his past July. If he can lower his walk rates, he will be one of the better pitchers in the league. It's all a matter of harnessing his mind and control. Pelfrey is a concern because of the "Verducci Effect" which basically states that if a young pitcher pitchers a significant amount of innings more than his previous year, he is due for an injury. I think he'll be fine and have a good year but maybe not as much as some optomists. As for the fifth starer, I do not think Livan will have a good year. I would much rather see the Mets resign Pedro and have him pitch in the 5th staters spot. He has more upside and is a smarter pitcher. Livan and Garcia will be useful in AAA for when Pedro or another starter gets injured. I would also advocate signing Sheets later in the year for when he is able to come back.

The Mets will have a good offensive going into next year although they won't be great. They could possibly be the beset 3,4,5, in baseball with Wright, Beltran, Delgado and thats not even including Reyes at leadoff. Church, Murphy, Castillo, Scnider/Castro, and the Pitcher won't be great but they will be solid. I expect a solid year from Castillo. Due to their solid core, they will be one of the better offensive teams in the league.

As for the bullpen, if K-Rod and Putz are healthy, the Mets will have the best 8th and 9th inning combo in baseball. Feliciano is a solid lefty and the rest of the 'pen is still to be determined. Parnell, Green and Stokes appear to be the candidates for the reset of the 'pen. Like in '06, the Mets could have one of the best pens in the league.

So assuming everyone stays healthy, the Mets will essentially be last year except with a better bullpen, which would win them in the mid-90's in wins. However, no one can assume no injuries so I'll predict 92 wins and a division title.

Mets Offseason

So far this offseason the Mets have added K-Rod, JJ Putz, Sean Green, Alex Cora, Cory Sullivan, Jeremy Reed, Tim Redding, Bobby Kielty, Darren O'Day, Rocky Cherry(offered back to O's but they rejected, and could be resigned), Connor Robertson Jose Valentine, Freddy Garcia, Livan Hernandez, and resigned Oliver Perez and Fernando Tatis. The Mets lost Pedro Martinez, Duaner Sanchez, Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Endy Chavez, Scott Schoenweis, Mike Carp, Ezequiel Carrera, Maikel Cleto, and some minor leaguers (not very noteworthy). All in all I think it was a good offseason (especially considering how Madoff screwed the Wilpons), although they could have done better.

Bad Moves: From an offensive standpoint I think the Mets still should have signed Dunn, Abreu, or Orlando Hudson (especially Abreu seeing as he signed for about $5 million) to play left field (and move Dunn to first after this year) and kept Murphy in the minors for one more year but it's not a terrible move seeing as Murphy continues to impress me (although I still feel many Mets fans overrate him). Tim Redding was signed for too much seeing as he doesn't have much upside and he is coming off of offseason surgery and is now injured. Cora was signed for too much as well to be a back up infielder. Combined they'll make about $5 million which is about what Abreu signed for and while I'm not an Abreu fan, he's way too good to turn down for that price. Also, I think that the Mets should have gotten more for Schoenewies, who for all the shit he took was a very effective LOGGY. As for the fifth starer's position I would have tried to get one of the two starters the Red Sox got: Smoltz or Penny. Smart moves on the Sox part. I also would have (and still would) sign Pedro because he has more upside than Livan Hernandez or Freddy Garcia. Although reports are that the Mets have made Pedro a $1-2 million dollar offer with incentives, which is a very smart move. I feel last year was a fluke because Pedro was never able to get into a groove due to injuries and the death of his father (whom he was very close to).

Good Moves: The K-Rod aquisition was a very good move (although I may have gone in a different direction) especailly seeing as he should be entering his prime now. The Mets also made a potentially great trade by obtaining JJ Putz, who was arguably the best closer in baseball from 2006-2007. Last year was injury filled and if he can bounce back to anywhere around his 06-07, form he'll be better than K-Rod. Reed who came in that trade, could play a big part this year if he makes the team. He is supposedly a great defensive outfielder who was once a top prospect becaue of his bat. If he can ever reach some of his potential he'll have a big year. Sean Green could also big a big part of the bullpen as a ground ball specialist. Hitters have said their at-bats against Green are always "uncomfortable" which is always a good thing from a pitchers standpoint. The Oliver Perez signing was good for a few reasons: 1) His deal is better than what the Braves gave Lowe because of their age and upside. 2) The timing of the deal. If Omar had waited, Sheets injury would have come out and demand would have gone up for Perez. 3) No other reliable options on the market. The Tatis signing was good as he could be a solid bat off the bench. I also really like the Jose Valentine minor league signing because although he won't make the team, he'll be good to have as a mentor in camp and in the minors as a backup. The Darren O'Day Rule V pick looks like a smart one as he may make the team as a Chad Bradford-type of pitcher. I would like to see the Mets sign Shawn Hill to a minor league deal (he was just cut by the Nationals).

So far the roster looks like this (with a few questions about last bench spots):
1b: Delgado
2b: Castillo
3b: Wright
ss: Reyes
c: Schnider
lf: Murphy
rf: Church
cf: Beltran
bn: Castro
bn: Anderson
bn: Cora
bn: Tatis
bn: Sullivan (?)
bn: Evans (?)- I think he should stay in minors
bn: Kielty (?)
bn: Reed (?)

sp: Santana
sp: Maine
sp: Perez
sp: Pelfrey
sp: Hernandez
rp: K-Rod
rp: Putz
rp: Feliciano
rp: Green
rp: Stokes (?)
rp: O'Day (?)
rp: Parnell (?)- I really like Parnell in the bullpen

Starting Back Up

Yea I was pretty lazy/busy for most of the offseason so I didn't really post much. Now that Spring Training is here I'm starting the blog back up.

No Lowe for the Mets

So it is being reported that the Braves have signed Lowe to a 4 year deal worth $60 million dollars. This comes just as I was warming up to the idea of having Lowe on the team. At first I was hesitant to sign a guy who is in his late 30's to a 3 and possibly 4 year deal. It doesn't matter now though because he is going to the Braves who I feel have overpayed for him. The Mets now NEED to sign either Oliver Perez, who they offered a 3 year deal worth around $30 million, or Ben Sheets, the ultimate high risk/high reward guy. I would be thrilled with Sheets because if he stays healthy the Mets would have 2 bonafied aces. I would also be happy with Oliver Perez because I feel he is bing underestimated. He can pitch like an ace when he's on top of his game and if he learns how to cut down on walks he will be a great number 2 pitcher. If the Mets do not sign either of these guys or a strong bat for LF I will consider this offseason a failure because they addressed the bullpen issue but did nothing about the rotation nor the lineup.