Mets Season Outlook

As of writing this I am going to assume the Mets make no more acquisitions this offseason. For the 2009 season I think the Mets' success will depend on their health (much like it did last year). If everyone can stay healthy I think that the Mets will win the division and go far in theplayoffs. That is a big IF however. Santana has already had a spring training injury scare and he is a huge part to the Mets success. I'm not worried about Maine as much as other people are considering he is coming off of minor offseason ebow surgery. Along with Perez, Maine is the other wild card in the rotation. Maine has potential to be a Cy Young winner in my opinon (and of some scouts). Maine needs to keep his pitch count low and go after hitters more rather than pitcher around them or pitch for the K. He also needs to think less and pitch more. Perez also has a ton of potential but is very inconsistent but when he's on he is one of the best as witnessed by his past July. If he can lower his walk rates, he will be one of the better pitchers in the league. It's all a matter of harnessing his mind and control. Pelfrey is a concern because of the "Verducci Effect" which basically states that if a young pitcher pitchers a significant amount of innings more than his previous year, he is due for an injury. I think he'll be fine and have a good year but maybe not as much as some optomists. As for the fifth starer, I do not think Livan will have a good year. I would much rather see the Mets resign Pedro and have him pitch in the 5th staters spot. He has more upside and is a smarter pitcher. Livan and Garcia will be useful in AAA for when Pedro or another starter gets injured. I would also advocate signing Sheets later in the year for when he is able to come back.

The Mets will have a good offensive going into next year although they won't be great. They could possibly be the beset 3,4,5, in baseball with Wright, Beltran, Delgado and thats not even including Reyes at leadoff. Church, Murphy, Castillo, Scnider/Castro, and the Pitcher won't be great but they will be solid. I expect a solid year from Castillo. Due to their solid core, they will be one of the better offensive teams in the league.

As for the bullpen, if K-Rod and Putz are healthy, the Mets will have the best 8th and 9th inning combo in baseball. Feliciano is a solid lefty and the rest of the 'pen is still to be determined. Parnell, Green and Stokes appear to be the candidates for the reset of the 'pen. Like in '06, the Mets could have one of the best pens in the league.

So assuming everyone stays healthy, the Mets will essentially be last year except with a better bullpen, which would win them in the mid-90's in wins. However, no one can assume no injuries so I'll predict 92 wins and a division title.