Friday, November 7, 2008
A Penny Saved is a Penny Earned
Clever title right? Here's another idea for a starting pitcher who may be cheap. Brad Penny just filed for Free Agency and is coming off of a poor and injury plagued season. However Penny was a very effective pitcher before last year and was even the opening day starter for the Dodgers. He is also a former All-Star who has good stuff when healthy. If Penny can come back and stay healthy he will be a very good addition to the Mets. He is also only a Type B free agent so he won't cost as much draft pick wise as Lowe, Perez, Sabathia, etc. Penny has the potential to be a solid number 2 pitcher and could come cheap. Santana, Maine, Penny, Pelfrey, and another starter (Lowe, Perez, Pedro, Prior, Sheets, Vazquez, Jackson, etc.) would be quite the rotation.
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29 comments:
Not that clever...I smell a pun
it actually is clever. just because you're not amused by it doesn't mean it's not clever. this is j-money.
It's a pun because his last name is Penny and there is a saying that goes "A penny saved is a penny earned" I capitalized the P's because they represent Brad's last name not the monetary coin. I know it was difficult to grasp at first but j-$ got it. Also by picking up Penny we could save his career and then he would earn his money!
the mets are letting your boy perez go
not necessarily steve. i mean odds are that hes not comin back but theyll probably put a bid in for him. I mean he's only going to be 27 and he's arguably one of the top 10 lefties in the game. Why wouldn't you bid on that?
two words... Scott Boras
scott borASS
I didn't say make the top offer, I said make a bid. There is a distinct difference.
I did some research to look at lefties starters in the major leagues. There are 36 left-handed starters. Here are the lefties I would rank ahead of Perez:
Santana, Sabathia, Hamels, Lee, Kazmir, Lester, Bedard, Liriano, Lowry, Beurhle, Danks. That's 11 right there. Two other maybes are Randy Johnson (look at his stats) and Joe Saunders. So, the tag top 10 lefty is misleading as well as the fact that he is a middle of the pack lefty, who for some reason, you are in love with.
I say he is arguably a top 10 lefty because of his past, his potential, and his age. He had a great and dominating season in MLB. He fell off considerably since then but had a good 2007 and a good 2008 after June. He has the potential to be a top of the line starter. Also Steve you only researched his year. Danks is not better than Perez. Neither is Johnson at this stage. Also no way is Lowry better than Perez. I would take Perez over Burhle as well. The others I wouldn't argue: Santana, CC, Kazmir, Hamels, Bedard, Liriano, and Lee. Although Lee and Liriano I'm not completely sold on, especially Lee.
WAT??? Lowry has way better stuff and has had 3 solid years. He was supposed to be the best of the 3 young guns in San Fran, but then got hurt and Lincecum was dominant. Buerhle has been better than Perez his whole career and continues to do so. Perez is sparadic and has had only two good years. Danks is still young, I'll give you that. Let's see how he does the next couple of years. You left out Lester btw, no way in hell you'd take perez over lester
You do have a man crush on perez. he's been good for two seasons and you're ranking him in the top 10 lefties in the mlb based pretty much off of potential. now, lowry's numbers have been decent in various years but they haven't been fantastic and i'm not ready to say he's a top 10 lefty based off of his early career and the fact that he's coming off of elbow surgery. buerhle has had a better career than perez as well and would be the more consistent option to go with. i love lester and he was one of the top 10 lefties last season, but it's one season. i still think he'll do well though. cliff lee was dominant this year and had a few good seasons a couple of years ago. it's hard to say where he would rank. liriano had a fantastic season in 2006 and finished well last season. not sure how to read that situation though. just have to wait for '09. however, until perez can string together consecutive good seasons, it is impossible to throw him in the top 10. potential is not enough to get him over the bump. he may be a good pitcher. he may be a great pitcher. he has yet to show, however, that he has consistent stuff to put him in the elite of the league.
Steve Lowry does not have better stuff than Perez. Perez has some of the best stuff in the game. His problem is not being able to control it. I've always liked Lowry but there is no way he has the same potential as Perez. Burhle has had a better career but I'd take Perez over Burhle for the future. I just forgot to name Lester and no I probably wouldn't take Perez over him but it wouldn't be a no brainer decision like you make it seem.
As for anonymous I'm not saying Perez is in the group of elites. Top 10 lefties is not necessarily elite Also your logic for Liriano, Lee, and Lester applies to Perez: they've only had one or two good seasons. It is not impossible to throw Perez in the top 10 because of potential because it is not just potential. He has shown that he can be a good MLB pitcher. Ranking Liriano in the top 10 is more based on potential because he has only pitcher 220 innings in the bigs.
Cliff Lee had a pretty good season in 2005 and an average season in 2006 followed by a terrible 2007 and then the great 2008. Oliver Perez had a great 2004 followed by terrible seasons until 2007 which was pretty good and he had an average 2008 which is broken up into a terrible start with a amazing stretch in the middle and a relatively slow finish. Sounds similar but flip flopped. Oliver Perez is also younger than Lee.
Perez had a higher K rate and lower BAA than Lester and Lee in 2008. Perez's problem is the walks and HR ball. If Perez can cut down on walks he could be grouped in the elite lefties in the game.
Steve... Lowry? Really?
i was saying that you can't really throw liriano, lee, or lester into the conversation either. i said you had to wait, which is the same thing i said about perez. i never said that they were in the lefty elite. i argued against it if anything.
well how can u not throw him in the top 10 lefties if lester liriano and lee aren't in there either?
also perez is a big game pitcher which helps his case
rory, i will bet you $20 that lowry has better career numbers than oliver perez. Cliff Lee is a cy young pitcher this year, fluke years like that are hard to find. Lee had a much lower K-BB ratio, a way lower ERA, more innings. Lee has 3 seasons of 200+ innings, perez has... 0. (Lowry has 1, btw). Perez walks the ballpark, doesnt go deep into games which is what a top pitcher does. When I think of Oliver Perez, I think of Jose Contreras. Same type of guy, only Contreras is a righty. O, and Buerhle isnt even 30 yet, so I'll take the established guy who I will guarantee has a better future
what about pat venditte? he could be the first ever to make it into the top ten lefty and top ten righty list. just a thought. he's also a hall of famer with the potential to be the best pitcher god ever made.
Im not saying murphy is Gods gift to creation all im sayin is that he will be a solid everyday player with potential to be great
and btw murphy rehabed at the cyclones for 3 games this year he hit a homerun off vandettie
You say that fluke seasons are hard to come by if Lee's 2008 season was one. Well how about Perez's 2004? I'd probably take Lee over Perez btw.
Lowry never had a season of Perez's 2004 caliber. Lowry has never been described as a top of the rotation starter as Perez has been. Perez has worse career numbers but that's because had some terrible seasons. Lowry is also a year older than Perez. Perez also is more durable than Lowry who had elbow surgery.
In regards to Buerhle he is more consistent pitcher and depending on the situation I'd pick Buerhle over Perez. For example if I already have a stable rotation, I'd take Perez because although he won't give as many innings as Buerhle, he has a better chance at having a great season than Buerhle. Buerhle is more low a mid-low end number 2 pitcher and consistently stays there. Perez has the potential of an ace but also can pitch like a number 4 pitcher. Perez can be one of the best pitchers when he's on but hes bad when he's off. So if I have enough stability and known products in my rotation I would take Perez because he can be great. If I don't have a stable rotation I would take Buerhle (or Lowe) because he is more of a known commodity but less likely to be great.
actually, if you look at the facts, buerhle is a number 1 pitcher with the potential to be better than nolan ryan. get your shit straight.
I said hard to find, not impossible. Your about the only person in the world who would take perez over buerhle; he's the white sox ace. Also, perez had a terrible september, with an era of 5.79, his highest in any month, and he's only pitched in two play-off games with mixed results, so you cant call him a big game pitcher, he didn't win the big game this year, the last of the season. You can't count on him, you never know what start your gonna get. If you were the mets GM you'd overpay for him and watch him implode for the next x amount of years
Buerhle is the White Sox ace by default like Wang is the Yankee's ace. Neither are true "aces". They are both very good pitchers but not aces. Also like I just said it depends on the situation on when I would take Perez over Buerhle. Don't tell me what I would do if I were the Mets GM because I wouldn't overpay for him. Since the Mets really only have Santana as their know commodity (because of Pelfrey's large workload and Maine's surgery) I would probably try to sign Derek Lowe over Perez. I also don't believe he is going to implode as he enters his prime years seeing as he is only 27. Perez is basically high risk/high reward player. Perez is a big game pitcher. He pitched very well against the Marlins, Braves, and Phillies. He pitched well in the playoffs 2 yrs ago. He pitched very well on 3 days rest on the last game of the season.
I don't think he's a big game pitcher. Some team is going to overpay for him and the fact that you just said Wang isn't an ace and that perez would be more of an ace than him scares me beyond belief. Perez is so overrated and i'm sick of talking about him.
Read what I am saying steve. I didn't say that Perez is more of an ace than Wang. I said he has potential to be more of an ace than Wang which is true. Wang is not an ace. Neither is Perez. In fact I'd probably rather have Wang than Perez. You really just don't understand...
Perez is a big game pitcher but he's inconsistent. He pitches great against good teams but just loses it against the bad ones. His main problem is sometimes he just cant throw strikes then allows a big inning. And whoever gets Perez is gonna overpay because look at the ridiculous market for lefties. If Ted Lilly and Carlos Silva are getting paid as much money as they are then Ollie is sure as hell gonna get PAID the next couple years.
Look we all have our man-crushes (Scott Shields, Chone Figgins, Joe Smith, Michael Young, Nick Markakis, Chase Utley, Eric Byrnes just to name a few of mine) but regardless while Scott Boras is wrong on his claim that Ollie is a top 5 lefty starter in the game he's close to being top 10.
The people you said Steve, you would take over him and whether I would take them:
Santana, Sabathia, Hamels, Kazmir, Lester: Absolutely without question.
Bedard: I would think about it but yes.
Beurhle: Yes
Lee: Yes
Liriano: If I had to pick them for one year right now Ollie, Liriano's injuries worry me but if I'm building a team for the future then yes.
Danks: Eh, its close but no I'd prefer Ollie.
Lowry: I love him, but I'd say no and take Ollie.
Johnson: Hell no.
Saunders: Yes and not just because I'm biased.
I would rank Perez somewhere between 11th and 15th.
all I have to say is thank you tim mastro and I too have a man crush on Chase Utley
Listen I'll give u Lee and Buerhle only because there isn't enough evidence to support my argument (although for Lee there isn't much to argue against me.) However I will stick to my claim that when on his game he is one of the best pitchers in the league and that is a fact shown by his dominant stretches. There is also good reason to believe that he maybe able to finally harness his ability and mature as people usually do when they grown up (he is only 27) and become a top of the line pitcher. He is just entering his prime years and has shown that he can be great. I stand strong in my argument that he has more potential than any lefty not named Santana, Sabathia, Hamels, Kazmir, Liriano, or Bedard. On top of his game he can even top some of that group and he doesn't have the injury concerns that have surrounded Liriano, Kazmir, Hamels, and Bedard their entire careers (which is why Kazmir was dumbly traded but that's a different story.) Will a team have to overpay to get Perez? Absolutely. Could the deal end up being a bargain? Absolutely. Could it end up being a poor signing? Absolutely. It all depends on how he matures because the potential to be dominant is still there as shown by his mid season stretch of pure dominance.
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