Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Johan Santana and the Cy Young Award

I have a huge problem with the way the Cy Young Award is handed out. The Cy Young award is supposed to be handed out to the best pitcher in the league. However many times the award is handed out to the pitcher who has the most wins, which is a terrible reflection on how good a pitcher really is. The goal of a pitcher is to prevent runs from scoring. There is a statistic that measures how good a pitcher is at doing that. That statistic is called ERA. In my opinion the pitcher with the lowest ERA in the league (given that he has pitched enough innings) deserves the Cy Young. A pitchers win-loss record is many times a reflection on how lucky he was, how good the bullpen was, or how good his offense was (something which for the most part is out of a pitcher's control). Take for example Steve Trachsel and Randy Johnson in 2006. Steve Trachsel finished the year with 15 wins (1 shy of the league leader) but had a 4.97 ERA. Randy Johnson finished with 17 wins (2 shy of the league leader) and an ERA of 5.00. It is amazing how these two pitchers had so many wins yet pitched so poorly. Now these are extreme examples but take this year for instance. The Cy Young candidates are Brandon Webb, Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia, and Johan Santana. The front runner for this award is probably Brandon Webb because he has 22 wins. Yet Santana has on average given up nearly a full run less per game than Webb.

I'll give you these stats anonymously and you tell me which pitcher you would rather have.
A: 227 INN, 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 265 K, 26/33 Games started were quality (GS/QS)
B: 253 INN, 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 251 K, 25/35 GS/QS
C: 234.3 INN, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 206K, 28/34 GS/QS
D: 226.7 INN, 3.3o ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 183 K, 24/34 GS/QS
E: 206.7 INN, 2.96 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 187 K, 21/33 GS/QS
F: 227.3 INN, 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 196 K, 23/33 GS/QS
(I only included K's because people love them but in the grand scheme it is not very important and just very flashy.)

I would take pitcher C over the rest of them followed probably by A then C then E then F then D. A is Lincecum, B is CC Sabathia, C is Santana, D is Webb, and E is Dempster. F is Hamels. Interesting how those stats stack up to one another when they are anonymous w/o wins. Santana has the lowest ERA in the MLB (yes even lower than Cliff Lee). He was undefeated since June 28th. If CC was in the NL the whole year and put up similar stats I would of course have to go with him. He wasn't though and didn't put up similar stats in both leagues. This award is for the year, not half of the year. Santana outpitched the rest of the league and if all the pitchers had the same run support and same bullpen, Santana would have the most wins. He pitched under more pressure than any other pitcher because of the NY media and fans. He was brought in to be the savior of the team and he did his best to be just that. He pitched one of the greatest games on the second to last day of the season. CC did a great job down the stretch as well but for the whole year Santana was better overall. The Cy Young Award should go to Santana but because he only has 16 wins and Webb has 22 and Lincecum has 18 it is unlikely Santana will win the award. This is not the only time in history where a pitcher will be robbed of the award. It has happend many many times before. It happend to Pedro the year Zito won. It happend last year with CC. It happend when Colon won it. It happened when Carpenter won it. It happend to many many others in the past. Johan should win but most likely won't and may not even finish top 3. It is a shame that the Cy Young award doesn't usually go to the best pitcher in the league.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

I agree that Santana should win, but I probably would've taken pitcher B, just going off annoymous stats. Santana probably won't win, however, it will probably be Lincecum, who Jayson Stark makes a pretty good argument for. Here is Stark's take on all the awards:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3611226

The Red King said...

I thought Stark was right about Lincecum when he wrote it but that was because he wrote it before the 2nd to last game of the season. Also another stat (besides lower ERA) that would make me want to take pitcher C over pitcher B is the fact that pitcher C is that he had more quality starts than pitcher B in less opportunities. He gave his team more opportunities to win. C is the best and C should be the Cy Young.

Anonymous said...

C is webb, right?

Anonymous said...

c is santana

Anonymous said...

and he should win

Anonymous said...

idk..i'm pretty sure C is webb...he is the best pitcher in baseball...it'd make sense that he have the best stats..use your head bstro

Anonymous said...

if you read the next paragraph it tells you who each is and it said santana is C

Anonymous said...

webb is D

Anonymous said...

no. webb is C. Webb's the best pitcher in the league. it only makes sense that he would have the best statistics. Rory must have printed a typo. Webb is C. Not Johann Sangetshurtalot.